274 PART 5 Looking for Relationships with Correlation and Regression

3.

Tell the software what kind of regression you want it to carry out by

specifying the family of the dependent variable’s distribution and the link

function.

Step 3 is not obvious, and you may have to consult your software’s help file. In

the R program, as an example, you have to specify both family and link in a

single construction, which looks like this:

glm formula

Accidents

Year, family poisson link

“identity”

This code tells R that the outcome is the variable Accidents, the predictor is the

variable Year, and the outcome variable follows the Poisson family of distribu-

tions. The code link

“identity” tells R that you want to fit a model in which

the true event rate rises in a linear fashion, meaning that it increases by a

constant amount each year.

4.

Execute the regression and obtain the output.

The next step is to interpret the output.

TABLE 19-1

Yearly Data on Fatal Highway Accidents in One City

Calendar Year

Fatal Accidents

2010

10

2011

12

2012

15

2013

8

2014

8

2015

15

2016

4

2017

20

2018

20

2019

17

2020

29

2021

28